Predictions is a fool’s errand - because you are very unlikely to be correct most of the time, and the gains our not obvious. But! it is for sure a fun thought experiment to have on occasion, and an important practice to have as an innovator, and someone who’s eager to build the future.
Just for extra context - over the past couple of years, I very correctly called the future - of AI wave and consumer AI before ChatGPT came out (a week before!), building early versions of World Models in 2022, and many more such cases, of which you can find through my Twitter.
I will try and make it high level and short.
HCI - this is an information bandwidth problem. Already today the model and the harnesses are capable of so much, yet we are limited by the amount of data we can consume and understand from them, as well as the amount of data we can instruct them. There will be a lot of innovation in the Human<>Computer interfaces, from invasive and non invasive BCIs, new hardware form factors (like the early ones we are seeing today: glasses, rings, necklaces, etc.) - all the way to dynamic UIs, affecting physical space, etc.
The HCI space can also be the thing that turns the tide in favour of AI among the population. At least non-invasive enrichments of the human capabilities in the face of the growing AI ones. I can see how a new consumer electronic company, building post-phone devices, can ride on a wave and communicate “that we make humans more capable of creating and doing things in this world” rather than the current AI Labs communication of “AI is going to either kill us all, or make y’all absolute” (big opportunity here)
We will see a revive in “Alchemy” - the home lab experimentation to find new science across different sectors, be it biology, physics, mathematics and even economics. I am not sure if this will all mature to become companies, but we will see many smaller contributors in the sciences that traditionally had to work in academia or bigger corp in order to make any significant progress.
We are talking about new and experimental medicine that might take years to go through regulatory approval, but the bio-hackers will have it open source on the web regardless. We are talking about progress in longevity, in understanding the brain, emotions, consciousness, the nature of reality
Simulations will become a fundamental primitive to how we run society, how we make decisions, individually and as a society. How we perform therapy, understand ourselves, learn, even go through history to understand the past
AI will unlock many new branches in the tech tree that maybe at some point in history we had a little knowledge of but never had the economical incentives to fully pursuit. That WILL be a bottom-up, age of discovery 2.0. I mean - we are talking about Neural Engineering, Space Exploration, AI Psychology, Robotics, Meaning & Philosophy, Economy & Governance, Post-AGI Economy, Medicine & Longevity, Learning & Value of Knowledge, Arts & Creativity, Energy, Biotechnology. DO YOU REALIZE WHAT IS COMING!?
On the geo-political side, unfortunately I believe we are heading towards a big, multi-nation conflict that will also involve non-nation-state players, playing a critical role (like OpenAI, Anthropic, Apple, etc.) - that actually might lead to the post-nation-state world. I spoke about it at length before , but you can also see example of that from today - where Anthropic co-founder went head-to-head with the Pope, in conversations around faith and theology around AI. The conflict will arise in order to breakdown the the growing tension that is currently being fed and led by AI. Similar to how it took 2 great wars to settle the industrial revolution - and to establish the nation states as the sole geo-political instrument, so will happen here, in the post- information-revolution
New religions will emerge (some already did - like EA, and e/acc).
We will have a new social contract, new political and economical ideas that will help settle the growing wave. New Adam smith, and John Locke.
Adam